Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Sometimes, it is just not going your way

June ES did not quite reach my expected low of 742. Thus I've been doing scalping long for most of the day. My entries were not very good and only manged a small profit with the scalping.

What kills me is a scalping short enter at 3:42pm. I didn't expect ES to break previous day high with only 30 minutes to go. Unfortunately it did and with a vengeance.

Now holding on a "scalping" short and what is my trading plan?

  1. The scalping short was a mistake, pure and simple. It should be cut. I am trying to do it at 744.
  2. Overbought signal has been digested. This means I do not expect another big drop within 1-2 days.
  3. Interesting enough, I believe the 770 level will be retested in the next retracement.
  4. The conclusion is to look for sell signal at 780 or above.
It is too early to talk about specific price level yet, but one possible strategy is to short ES calls at next major breakout.

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